Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia From CMIP6 Pseudo‐Global Warming Simulations

In this Pseudo-global Warming study, potential future changes in the Southeast Asia tropical cyclone (TC) exposure climatology are quantified. One hundred and seventeen landfalling TCs last 20 years simulated with their current climate conditions also Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble perturbed under SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 change scenarios. Our simulations suggest that projected to be 8% more intense at landfall, 2.8% faster have smaller sizes by end of 21st century scenario. addition, TC landfall locations shift northward tracks extending further inland toward Laos Thailand. particular, exposures, wind rainfall impacts significantly increase northern Philippines, Taiwan, southwestern coast China, Vietnam; decrease southern areas southeastern China.